Aims and focus of the topic study group
Call for papers
Submissions of proposals and papers
Other activities linked to probability education at and around ICME
Programme, papers, and presentations in powerpoint
 Manfred Borovcnik (Austria)
manfred.borovcnik@uniklu.ac.at  Dave Pratt (United Kingdom)
d.pratt@ioe.ac.uk
 Yingkang Wu (China)
ykwu@math.ecnu.edu.cn  Carmen Batanero (Spain)
batanero@ugr.es
The organizing team:
Carmen  Manfred 
Dave  Yingkang 
Aims and Focus
Probability and statistics education are relatively new disciplines. Both have only recently been introduced into main stream school curricula in many countries. While application oriented statistics is undisputed in its relevance, discussion about probability is more ambivalent. When probability is reduced to its classical conception, mainly based on combinatorics or its formal treatment in higher mathematics, it can be seen as irrelevant, and may be abandoned to leave only the statistical element of the stochastics discipline. However, we believe that there are some powerful arguments in favour of a strong role for probability within stochastics curricula:
 Sound probabilistic judgements support people’s rational decisionmaking in important situations, such as medical tests, jury verdicts, investments, assessment, etc.
 Equally, reasoning about uncertainty is an important everyday skill. For example, the concepts of risk (not only in financial markets) and reliability impact on our everyday decisionmaking. Clearly, these concepts are closely related to and dependent upon probability.
 Probability is essential in understanding any inferential procedures in statistics.
 Probability offers a tool for modelling and “creating” reality. For example, modern physics cannot be formulated without reference to probability concepts.
Thus, the challenge is to teach probability through designing materials and tools that encourage understanding. The focus has to be on creating approaches to probability that are more accessible and motivating, utilising practical applications as appropriate. Pedagogy should embrace schools of thought such as the frequentist and subjective views of probability.
We see the emergence of approaches that promote the visualisation of abstract concepts. Simulation is one such strategy but there are many others. The use of technology also enables a change in emphasis from the technicalities of calculation to conceptual underpinning. At the same time, we recognise the fundamental importance that pedagogy addresses personal attitudes and intuitions in its approach.
With these challenges in mind, we have encouraged in our call papers and presentations at ICME 11 that will help us to share the diversity of endeavours in research on understanding and teaching of randomness, chance and probability. May future teaching take advantage of this exchange, which we expect will initiate new research projects on the teaching and learning of probability.
Call for Papers
We encourage submissions related to the following topics:
Individuals’ corner
 Ideas of probability in young children
 Students’ understanding and misunderstanding of fundamental probabilistic concepts
Impact of technology
 The use of technology for students’ learning of probability
 Using software (Fathom, probability explorer, etc.) to study probability and sampling distributions
 Special issues in elearning
Teacher’s corner
 Teacher education on the topic of probability
 Teachers’ conceptions about teaching probability
Fundamental ideas
 The probabilistic idea of random variable – distribution – expectation
 The central limit theorem – convergence
 Bayes theorem and conditional probability – independence – exchangeability
 Probabilistic modelling – a probabilistic look at distributions
Submissions of proposals and papers
Individuals may submit a paper for consideration by the Organizing Team of the Topic Study Group to be accepted for oral presentation in the TSG or as a paper presented by distribution within the group.
Send proposals to Manfred Borovcnik (with the reference “ICME 11 proposal” to filter the mail accordingly).
Format of proposals and papers
Length of proposal: 2 pages plus references; length of final paper: 68 pages plus references. Typing should be done according to the formatting template, which you may download from this site. The documents should be delivered in MSWord (with possibly an extra file in Adobe pdf format for checking the layout). – The layout terms for the final paper are still subject to alterations (there is some discussion within the IPC on common formatting prescriptions for all groups).
Accepted papers will also be published on the website of the conference and on a conference CD. If you do not specify presentation by distribution, we will assume that you wish your paper to be considered for oral presentation. Because only a limited number of papers can be presented orally, you may be asked to accept presentation by distribution. The time for presentation will be limited to 15 minutes; some few talks of general interest may have 30 minutes.
Short outline/proposal (2 pages)  January 1, 2008 
Answer to the authors  January 22 , 2008 
Paper Submitted 
February 25, 2008 
Papers reviewed by the organizing team 
March 15, 2008 
Final paper submitted and posted on the TSG website 
April 13, 2008 
Note: Late submissions will be considered, but only for presentation by distribution. Any proposals to be considered for this must be submitted no later than April 15, 2008.
h3. Other activities linked to probability education at and around ICME
Proposals by
TSG #14: Research and development in the teaching and learning of statistics at ICME11
More information:  http://tsg.icme11.org/tsg/show/15 
Team chairs:  
Rolf Biehler (Germany)  biehler@mathematik.unikassel.de 
Mike Shaughessy (U.S.A.)  mikesh@pdx.edu 
Joint ICMI/IASE Study
This conference takes place at the ITESM, Monterrey, June 30 – July 4, 2008 (the week before ICME)
More information:  ICMI/IASE Study 
Chair: Carmen Batanero (Spain)  batanero@ugr.es 
ELEE: Latin American Statistics Education Meeting
(in Spanish and Portuguese)
This meeting specifically directed to Latin American Statistics Educators takes place at the ITESM, Monterrey, July 45, 2008.
More information:  Latin American Statistics Meeting 
Cileda Coutinho (Brazil)  cileda@pucsp.br 
Programme, papers, and presentations in powerpoint
You find here the schedule of the presentations of this topic study group. By clicking the title, you get the full paper. By clicking the pdf logo, a pdf version of the presentation in powerpoint is opened. This might be useful to get an overview on the key ideas; furthermore, it gives an authentic impression of the group`s work.
Tue, 8th 
12.0013.00 

Chair: Yinkang Wu 
Issues in Probability Teaching and Learning 

Ramesh Kapadia 
Chance Encounters – 20 years later 

Robert Peard 
Teaching the Mathematics of Gambling to Reinforce Responsible Attitudes towards Gambling 

Seth Ireland & Jane Watson  
Santiago Inzunsa  
Sofia Anastasiadou & Th. Chadjipantelis 
The Role of Representations in the Understanding of Probabilities in Tertiary Education  
Wed, 9th  12.0013.30  
Chair: Carmen Batanero  Informal Conceptions  
Dor Abrahamson  
Francesca Chiesi & Caterina Primi 
Primary School Children’s and College Students’ Recency Effects in a Gaming Situation 

Knut Ole Lysoe  
Dave Pratt  
Susanne Prediger & Katrin Rolka  
Lucia Zapata Cardona 
How Do Teachers Deal with the Heuristic of Representativeness? 

Sat, 12th  12.0013.30  
Chair: Dave Pratt  Conditional probability and Bayes’ theorem  
Carmen Díaz & Carmen Batanero 

M. Pedro Huerta 
On Conditional Probability Problem Solving Research – Structures and Contexts 

Veronica Y. Kataoka, e.a. 
Probability Teaching in Basic Education in Brazil: Assessment and Intervention 

Hugo M. Hernández Trevethan, e.a. 
A Practical Approach to Probability in the Context of a Science Fair 

Laura Martignon & Stefan Krauss 

Ödön Vancsó 
A Parallel Discussion of Classical and Bayesian Ways as Introduction to Statistical Inference 
The authors come from Europe, USA, Australia and Latin America, the English, the Spanish world, and the “rest” are distributed “evenly”. Some graphs illustrate the variety of approaches in the accepted papers.